Background

Notes and format last updated Apr 16, 2020

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines using rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 15,011
2 New Jersey 12,518
3 Massachusetts 8,191
4 Connecticut 7,291
5 Rhode Island 7,276
6 Louisiana 5,822
7 District of Columbia 5,514
8 Delaware 4,274
9 Michigan 3,824
10 Illinois 3,620
11 Pennsylvania 3,373
12 Maryland 3,223
13 South Dakota 2,538
14 Colorado 2,397
15 Indiana 2,370
16 Georgia 2,187
17 Mississippi 2,047
18 Iowa 1,859
19 Washington 1,820
20 Nebraska 1,802
21 Virginia 1,585
22 Nevada 1,528
23 Florida 1,495
24 Tennessee 1,434
25 New Hampshire 1,425
26 Ohio 1,396
27 Vermont 1,370
28 New Mexico 1,347
29 Alabama 1,333
30 Utah 1,321
31 North Dakota 1,236
32 Missouri 1,168
33 Kansas 1,164
34 California 1,143
35 South Carolina 1,090
36 Wisconsin 1,044
37 Arkansas 1,016
38 Idaho 998
39 Kentucky 927
40 Arizona 922
41 Texas 895
42 North Carolina 871
43 Oklahoma 828
44 Maine 761
45 Minnesota 676
46 Wyoming 672
47 West Virginia 600
48 Oregon 558
49 Alaska 468
50 Puerto Rico 434
51 Hawaii 423
52 Montana 420

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 New York 349
2 New Jersey 337
3 Rhode Island 317
4 Massachusetts 265
5 Delaware 246
6 Connecticut 194
7 Nebraska 174
8 District of Columbia 171
9 Illinois 163
10 Maryland 158
11 Iowa 148
12 Indiana 112
13 Colorado 89
14 North Dakota 84
15 South Dakota 77
16 Pennsylvania 75
17 Virginia 75
18 Mississippi 73
19 Louisiana 66
20 Kansas 64
21 Tennessee 54
22 New Hampshire 53
23 Michigan 52
24 Georgia 51
25 New Mexico 47
26 Utah 47
27 Wisconsin 41
28 Minnesota 37
29 South Carolina 35
30 Alabama 34
31 North Carolina 34
32 Nevada 33
33 California 32
34 Ohio 32
35 Washington 32
36 Arizona 30
37 Missouri 29
38 Arkansas 28
39 Kentucky 27
40 Texas 26
41 Florida 24
42 Wyoming 23
43 Maine 14
44 Vermont 14
45 Oklahoma 13
46 Oregon 13
47 West Virginia 12
48 Puerto Rico 11
49 Idaho 6
50 Alaska 2
51 Hawaii 1
52 Montana 1

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 889
2 New Jersey 680
3 Connecticut 564
4 Massachusetts 435
5 Louisiana 365
6 Michigan 341
7 District of Columbia 262
8 Rhode Island 219
9 Illinois 157
10 Pennsylvania 152
11 Maryland 141
12 Delaware 128
13 Indiana 125
14 Colorado 122
15 Washington 101
16 Georgia 92
17 Mississippi 76
18 Vermont 75
19 Nevada 71
20 Ohio 64
21 Virginia 53
22 Florida 50
23 Minnesota 50
24 New Mexico 49
25 Oklahoma 49
26 Kentucky 48
27 Missouri 48
28 Wisconsin 48
29 Alabama 46
30 California 45
31 New Hampshire 44
32 Kansas 43
33 Iowa 40
34 Arizona 38
35 Maine 37
36 South Carolina 34
37 Idaho 32
38 North Carolina 31
39 Nebraska 28
40 Tennessee 28
41 North Dakota 24
42 Texas 24
43 Oregon 21
44 West Virginia 20
45 Arkansas 16
46 Puerto Rico 16
47 Montana 13
48 South Dakota 12
49 Utah 12
50 Wyoming 12
51 Hawaii 11
52 Alaska 9

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Connecticut 23
2 Massachusetts 21
3 New York 19
4 New Jersey 16
5 District of Columbia 15
6 Michigan 10
7 Rhode Island 9
8 Delaware 8
9 Maryland 7
10 Louisiana 6
11 Indiana 5
12 Illinois 4
13 Pennsylvania 4
14 Minnesota 3
15 New Mexico 3
16 Georgia 2
17 Iowa 2
18 Mississippi 2
19 Alabama 1
20 California 1
21 Colorado 1
22 Kansas 1
23 Missouri 1
24 Nevada 1
25 New Hampshire 1
26 North Carolina 1
27 North Dakota 1
28 Ohio 1
29 South Carolina 1
30 Vermont 1
31 Virginia 1
32 Washington 1
33 Wisconsin 1
34 Alaska 0
35 Arizona 0
36 Arkansas 0
37 Florida 0
38 Hawaii 0
39 Idaho 0
40 Kentucky 0
41 Maine 0
42 Montana 0
43 Nebraska 0
44 Oklahoma 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Tennessee 0
49 Texas 0
50 Utah 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 98,544 1 99
Lincoln Arkansas 57,893 2 99
Bledsoe Tennessee 39,033 3 99
Rockland New York 34,888 4 99
Marion Ohio 33,613 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 3,584 205 93
Richland South Carolina 2,020 444 85
Pierce Washington 1,497 622 80
Orange California 669 1265 59
York South Carolina 662 1275 59

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
New York New York 7,280 1 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 2 99
Terrell Georgia 2,110 3 99
Nassau New York 1,476 4 99
Early Georgia 1,472 5 99
Pierce Washington 54 665 78
Richland South Carolina 46 761 75
Davidson Tennessee 36 872 72
Orange California 13 1244 60
York South Carolina 11 1275 59

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons